Research · preprint · 0.2

China's Second-Hand Home Prices over the Next Five Years: An Interpretable Combination Forecasting Method and Bottoming Analysis (2026–2030)

Based on the official second-hand residential price indices of 70 cities (2019–2026, 90 consecutive months with no gaps), we propose an interpretable three-component combination forecast (trend continuation / mean reversion / seasonality, with weights selected by rolling out-of-sample validation), provide five-year forecasts for the nation and Beijing, and discuss the possibility of a bottom.

LiyukPublished August 15, 2026Read the full paper on GitHub ↗Project repository ↗

• #Housing
• #Forecasting
• #Time Series
• #Explainability
• #China